Gregor, please read the entire paragraph. No one knows the real numbers but Festool as I said! The only number I know is I have a $3000 saw and stand collecting dust. There are many on this forum talking about the repair dying after about a year. If you think about that... the amount of saw issues must be high with the repair failing. I have no problem paying for the repair because I'm out of warranty.  The only thing I would like to know is that there is a proper fix for this debacle.

But at least the 50/50 is within the bounds of reason, which is a probability bounded by zero and 1.

You can, in practice, have a defect rate of >100% in case the replacement(s) also fail, something I personally experienced with a certain harddrive vendor.

Any % numbers thrown around here are being estimates based on a data set that is massively biased toward the cases having a problem with the product (as I tried to illustrate through my completely ... statistic that I solely based on my one defective device), they're not only useless but IMHO contraproductive.

My suggestion would be, instead of continuing an endless speculation in an echo-chamber, to collect hard (and proveable) facts as an effective base for any further discussion with the supplier in question. Which, in my experience, works better toward archiving a positive reaction (or change of behaviour) from a company as compared to an unsubstantiated approach.

Gregor - talking and speculating is not useless from the perspective of those with failed motors.

It puts pressure on the manuf. to solve the problem - which seems to be at a standstill here. 

I've seen the same thing happen with a German auto maker that stonewalled replacing a defective , but very expensive part on a very limited run. It's a sound financial play from a risk management perspective because the individual rarely has the resources to challenge the mother ship. And, when the amt. of  owners is small they can't avail themselves to a class action that an attorney will front.

That's where a media campaign - especially social media can have some teeth. Everyone researches everything these days . If the first few hits are how your product sucks because it's blowing up or failing or the brakes don't work or it fails shortly after the warranty expires - that gets managements attention.

Even if the underlying claim is untrue.

I own two kapex on stands and four vacuums. I had noticed one saw on site had developed a very loud whine and decided to bring the second saw to site to replace the whining saw and for that day we would use two saws on site. The second saw died on site after an hour. so now it has to go back and the whining saw needs to go as well. One is 4 and the other 2. I will not pay much to fix them. The spring in both of mine quit doing their job right away and we always had to lift saw after each cut. We always use the CT26 with the saws. I have 3 and one 33. The 33 needs to be shipped as well.

Attention Festool:
I AM in the market for a Kapex and was very close to spending £1,400 on the full kit.  But knowing the issues that exist I will not part with my precious money because I just cannot afford the risk of problems and downtime.  Confidence is important, and the Kapex does not currently give me it, sadly  I suspect many others feel the same way. 

I'd have loved to buy a Kapex but I'm going to have to buy a Metabo Xact SYM instead.

Over to you Festool...

Attention Festool:
I AM in the market for a Kapex and was very close to spending £1,400 on the full kit.  But knowing the issues that exist I will not part with my precious money because I just cannot afford the risk of problems and downtime.  Confidence is important, and the Kapex does not currently give me it, sadly  I suspect many others feel the same way. 

I'd have loved to buy a Kapex but I'm going to have to buy a Metabo Xact SYM instead.

Over to you Festool...

Spiff it's festool that you should have no confidence in, as they refuse to stand behind their products.
Just stating they will be repaired within the three years period is very telling.
Even all the guys on the gravy train and the fanboys have stoped trying to defend the kapex and have disappeared.
It will be replaced shortly with a new model.then all the old models will be completely worthless .

I posted the following on another thread regarding my Kapex saws.

I own 2 Kapex saws and love most of their features although I have had issues.  The compound dial is hands down the most practical I have ever used.  In my opinion, the accuracy is worth the extra cost combined with it's light weight.  The plastic handle on the back that you lift up to disengage the compound lock however, has it's drawbacks.  I have replaced 3 of the plastic hinges.  They always seem to break at the most inconvenient times like there really is a good time.  I keep a supply of no less than two on hand now for back up.  They are cheap and relatively quick to put on.   Now the bummer, I have had two motors go out.  The first was on a brand new saw less than a month old, the second was three days ago on that saw's replacement which was just over a year old.  I just boxed it up tonight to ship off.  My original saw is still going strong except for brushes replaced at just over 3 years old.  I purchased it in 2012.  I am hesitant to buy another because of the motor issue.  I routinely have 2 kapex's and one 12 inch Milwaukee scms set up on a trim job.  My guys will always default to the kapex unless they are cutting large crown or tall base standing up.  I have been doing high end finish work for nearly 25 years so I've got to use all the other colors of saws for reference.