Festool Owners Group

GENERAL DISCUSSIONS => Building Materials => Topic started by: Holzhacker on April 07, 2021, 04:45 PM

Title: Holy junk Batman
Post by: Holzhacker on April 07, 2021, 04:45 PM
At HD today:
3/4 cdx $50.08 a sheet
regular 2x4x8 $6.55
treated 2x4x8 $9.77
roll of #12 $83
roll of #14 $57
and people wonder why bids are so high, its not us getting rich
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: serge0n on April 07, 2021, 04:56 PM
This is nuts. I'm remodeling my master bedroom and had to pick up a few 2x4x8s couple of weeks ago, they were $5.67 at HD. I'm also in the Chicago area. Two weeks later they want $6.55?!
3/8" CDX was $30!
At least drywall is still priced the same.
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: rvieceli on April 07, 2021, 05:04 PM
Yup at our local Lowe’s  23/32 Advantech tongue and groove subfloor. $65.38 for 4x8 sheet.

Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: Cheese on April 07, 2021, 05:30 PM
I read an article a few weeks ago and they said the price of building materials is up 30% in the last year. They also mentioned that because of the increase, new housing starts are lower than normal because people are now looking at existing structures instead.

In our neighborhood, (70-120 year old houses) 2 houses were sold without even a For Sale sign being erected. Each went on the market and each sold for over the asking price in 2 days.
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: SDWW2019 on April 07, 2021, 06:24 PM
Absolutely amazed, but I get should not be surprised, about the volume of home improvements and construction that has occurred over past year. Here in San Diego, new construction is still charging forward, big land deals occurring, and every contractor/trades-person I've chatted with all said they have been crazy busy (e.g., electricians, painters, HVAC, etc.). For existing homes there is super low inventory, double digit (%) price increases, and sales within days of listing and most over-asking. Most co-workers who once considered selling would not dare do it because you would never find a replacement within budget. The local paper recently had a story about people paying 100-200k over-asking even for small condos and many being rejected >10 times on previous offers. Further, from what I read, it is not projected to let up for many years...especially as we come out of this pandemic.
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: Bob D. on April 07, 2021, 09:51 PM
"At least drywall is still priced the same."

Not in these parts. Drywall is up at least 25% so far this year.

And everything else has creeped up in price too.
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: Peter_C on April 07, 2021, 10:02 PM
Yeah let me know when they actually start paying similar for the wood coming out of the forest.
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: Bob D. on April 07, 2021, 10:15 PM
"In our neighborhood, (70-120 year old houses) 2 houses were sold without even a For Sale sign being erected. Each went on the market and each sold for over the asking price in 2 days."

There have been bidding wars on properties in my area. The son of a friend recently sold his house in one day for $20k over his asking price with buyers lined up in the deal fell through. The house across the street from me sold for $10k over ask in late 2019.

The flippers were making a killing in the beginning, but now that existing home values have jumped not so much.
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: squall_line on April 07, 2021, 10:23 PM
I bought a #2 2x4 x 10' for $9.13 on 3/16/21 (16-03-2021 for our friends in Europe).  Website shows $9.99 today, a 9.4% increase in only 3 weeks.
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: slackula@gmail.com on April 07, 2021, 10:43 PM
On advice from Festool Financial, I'm putting all my money into wood.
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: Cheese on April 07, 2021, 11:00 PM
On advice from Festool Financial, I'm putting all my money into wood.

Ya, that’s a move we should have all noticed. But when you’re deep in the weeds...
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: Peter_C on April 08, 2021, 02:59 AM
On advice from Festool Financial, I'm putting all my money into wood.
Do you wanna buy a tree farm? Or just the wood?

Ya, that’s a move we should have all noticed. But when you’re deep in the weeds...
You spray? Done a lot of spraying myself, including 2 gallons today onto poison oak.
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: JimH2 on April 08, 2021, 10:07 AM
Like others I am well aware of the significant increase is lumber and other building materials. Things will come back to earth once demand slows down. Originally the thought was COVID causing reduced production by mills/factories reducing outputs either buy choice or necessity (sick employees). Now it has moved on to the low interest rates, which are coming to and end as they start creeping up. What is amazing to me, as others noted above, that higher bids has not slowed anyone down from overspending. I was planning on starting a new home in April, but have punted until late this year or even next year. Of course there is a balancing act as to overpaying for materials, but ending up with a lower mortgage rate (if borrowing) or waiting for cheaper materials. The bigger concern for me is making sure I won't be staring down overpaying subs to get the work done when I need it done or stretching the build out so far the savings are negated. I also don't want to interrupt a gold rush for everyone knowing that quality might be compromised. I, myself, am stretched to the limit.

On the upside I have never been so careful about ordering materials and having the least amount of scrap material. Of course what would have been tossed is being saved now so that is another problem.
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: squall_line on April 08, 2021, 11:27 AM
We had an inland hurricane blow through Iowa in August, 2020.  Contractors are backed up beyond belief on top of the low-interest pressure.

Local big box stores have pallets upon pallets of OSB and shingles stacked anywhere that they can put them, anticipating all of the roofing work that is still to come.  The employees are frustrated that corporate won't stop sending material, and I understand both sides of it.

I called a reconstruction/restoration company last week to try to get a quote on my roof (seven 2x6 x 20' rafters, plus OSB, plus R&R the rest of the shingles to maintain cohesive appearance), they told me labor isn't available until November, and they aren't writing any quotes for work that starts more than 30 days out because material prices won't stop going up.

Of course, if the OSB is already on-site at the store and has been there for over 90 days, and isn't in any danger of running out, I wonder why prices need to double...
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: Tom Gensmer on April 08, 2021, 12:10 PM
For those who think prices will eventually return to what they were in the Before Times, all indications that I'm getting point to prices staying "high" for the foreseeable future.

From what I'm hearing, prior to Spring 2020 prices were unreasonably low, and we saw a number of saw mills and lumber yards close shop due to razor-thin margins (as I understand it).

In the present times, most of my suppliers are honoring their quotes for 7-14 days, with no guarantees on inventory or delivery dates. One local hardwood seller was telling me the other day that (at some unspecified time in the past) that their price on White Oak had remained static for 5 years. In the last three months, they've had to bump the price $0.20/bd-ft every week to cover replacement costs, with no end in sight. It's my understanding that softwood lumber wholesale pricing has doubled in the last three months.

A real-world example of this would be my friend's addition. I helped him build the addition in 2018. Once the space was completed, his insurance agency determined the replacement cost was in the ~$350K range. Earlier this Spring, his insurance carrier sent him a notice that they've revised the replacement cost to ~$700K+, based on current market costs of labor and materials.

Looking forward, my interpretation of the tea leaves is that we might see prices fall ~10-20% in the next 2-5 years, but I doubt we'll ever return to Before Times pricing. It's the cost of doing business, builders and customers need to adapt.

Shannon covered part of this in detail (specifically, hardwoods) in one of his recent podcasts: https://www.lumberupdate.com/45-covid-hardwood-impact/ (0:00-23:00).

For myself, I'm giving customers estimates based on current market conditions, with the caveat that I will not give a firm bid until 30 days prior to start of work, and even then, that pricing may be fluid depending on how big the job is (if it's a big job, trim/millwork will be nailed-down ~2 weeks prior to ordering)...
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: squall_line on April 08, 2021, 12:23 PM
For those who think prices will eventually return to what they were in the Before Times, all indications that I'm getting point to prices staying "high" for the foreseeable future.

From what I'm hearing, prior to Spring 2020 prices were unreasonably low, and we saw a number of saw mills and lumber yards close shop due to razor-thin margins (as I understand it).

In the present times, most of my suppliers are honoring their quotes for 7-14 days, with no guarantees on inventory or delivery dates. One local hardwood seller was telling me the other day that (at some unspecified time in the past) that their price on White Oak had remained static for 5 years. In the last three months, they've had to bump the price $0.20/bd-ft every week to cover replacement costs, with no end in sight. It's my understanding that softwood lumber wholesale pricing has doubled in the last three months.

A real-world example of this would be my friend's addition. I helped him build the addition in 2018. Once the space was completed, his insurance agency determined the replacement cost was in the ~$350K range. Earlier this Spring, his insurance carrier sent him a notice that they've revised the replacement cost to ~$700K+, based on current market costs of labor and materials.

Looking forward, my interpretation of the tea leaves is that we might see prices fall ~10-20% in the next 2-5 years, but I doubt we'll ever return to Before Times pricing. It's the cost of doing business, builders and customers need to adapt.

Shannon covered part of this in detail (specifically, hardwoods) in one of his recent podcasts: https://www.lumberupdate.com/45-covid-hardwood-impact/ (0:00-23:00).

For myself, I'm giving customers estimates based on current market conditions, with the caveat that I will not give a firm bid until 30 days prior to start of work, and even then, that pricing may be fluid depending on how big the job is (if it's a big job, trim/millwork will be nailed-down ~2 weeks prior to ordering)...

So you're saying I should mill up the 30"-dia ash and 24"-dia maple that are lying in my backyard and just patiently air dry them to maximize my profits? ;)

It's not a comfortable time to be a consumer; regardless of the sticker shock of price increases, it's hard to hear "I can only guarantee this price for the next week, the final bill will likely be much higher after all of the work is done."

I completely understand it, but it doesn't make it any more comfortable to hear.
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: Jeff Zanin on April 08, 2021, 12:58 PM
A couple of weks ago I bought 4x8x18mm GIS plywood, it was C$87 per sheet  [crying]  Thankfully I only needed three sheets.

It was the only suitable material available at my local HD, and it was stamped "Made in Chile" which may have explained some of the $87.

Nothing wrong with Chile but this is Canada, I would have thought if nothing else we could produce our own plywood.  Apparently not.
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: Tom Gensmer on April 08, 2021, 01:20 PM
For those who think prices will eventually return to what they were in the Before Times, all indications that I'm getting point to prices staying "high" for the foreseeable future.

From what I'm hearing, prior to Spring 2020 prices were unreasonably low, and we saw a number of saw mills and lumber yards close shop due to razor-thin margins (as I understand it).

In the present times, most of my suppliers are honoring their quotes for 7-14 days, with no guarantees on inventory or delivery dates. One local hardwood seller was telling me the other day that (at some unspecified time in the past) that their price on White Oak had remained static for 5 years. In the last three months, they've had to bump the price $0.20/bd-ft every week to cover replacement costs, with no end in sight. It's my understanding that softwood lumber wholesale pricing has doubled in the last three months.

A real-world example of this would be my friend's addition. I helped him build the addition in 2018. Once the space was completed, his insurance agency determined the replacement cost was in the ~$350K range. Earlier this Spring, his insurance carrier sent him a notice that they've revised the replacement cost to ~$700K+, based on current market costs of labor and materials.

Looking forward, my interpretation of the tea leaves is that we might see prices fall ~10-20% in the next 2-5 years, but I doubt we'll ever return to Before Times pricing. It's the cost of doing business, builders and customers need to adapt.

Shannon covered part of this in detail (specifically, hardwoods) in one of his recent podcasts: https://www.lumberupdate.com/45-covid-hardwood-impact/ (0:00-23:00).

For myself, I'm giving customers estimates based on current market conditions, with the caveat that I will not give a firm bid until 30 days prior to start of work, and even then, that pricing may be fluid depending on how big the job is (if it's a big job, trim/millwork will be nailed-down ~2 weeks prior to ordering)...

So you're saying I should mill up the 30"-dia ash and 24"-dia maple that are lying in my backyard and just patiently air dry them to maximize my profits? ;)

It's not a comfortable time to be a consumer; regardless of the sticker shock of price increases, it's hard to hear "I can only guarantee this price for the next week, the final bill will likely be much higher after all of the work is done."

I completely understand it, but it doesn't make it any more comfortable to hear.

I can absolutely empathize with you. I'm in the midst of planning a studio space for woodworking, and the material pricing has definitely pushed my timeline out several years.

Speaking for myself as a contractor, it's just really challenging to quote pricing on a project I won't get to for 6-8 months. I am usually able to commit to my labor pricing, but for material costs I'm having to work really hard on explaining the current market and manage expectations regarding where prices are going.....
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: Peter_C on April 08, 2021, 01:48 PM
Nothing wrong with Chile but this is Canada, I would have thought if nothing else we could produce our own plywood.  Apparently not.
Interesting. The last time sustainable logging in the USA was really profitable was when Clinton placed a tariff on Canadian wood products. Canada has more wood than they know what to do with, and subsidies from the Canadian government mean they are cheaper than USA products and we do get subsidies here for thinning etc.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/realestate/1996/11/23/builders-hit-lumber-pact-with-canada/f81d6c73-89d8-4aae-a372-677106545619/?utm_term=.9ad99c758557

A lot of wood is also owned by China. They are literally buying the forests in the USA. China subsidizes the wood in hopes the US mills will falter, and that is exactly what is happening. Our local Boise Cascade stud mill closed, along with a bunch of others.

Japan bought the local grain mills and 100% is shipped to Japan. They cut the middle man out. Expect to see more foreign land invests in countries with significant farm land.
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: SDWW2019 on April 08, 2021, 01:53 PM
The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board had a small piece on increasing costs of homes and lumber yesterday titled "Why Are Home Prices Soaring?". They identified portion of increase in USA is due to tariffs placed on Canadian lumber in 2017.
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: Yardbird on April 08, 2021, 01:57 PM


So you're saying I should mill up the 30"-dia ash and 24"-dia maple that are lying in my backyard and just patiently air dry them to maximize my profits? ;)

It's not a comfortable time to be a consumer; regardless of the sticker shock of price increases, it's hard to hear "I can only guarantee this price for the next week, the final bill will likely be much higher after all of the work is done."

I completely understand it, but it doesn't make it any more comfortable to hear.
[/quote]

YES!! Get one of those portable saw mills to come in.  I cut 37 ash trees a few years ago in my back yard while the Emerald Ash Borer rolled through.  I got tired of cutting up firewood that I cannot burn, and ended up buying an Alaskan Chainsaw jig and started cutting out 8*8" and 8*10" beams out and have an post and beam project I want to try.  The Alaska Chainsaw method is hard-you are basically sawing walking on your knees all day. 

I year later I had a big sugar maple die, and had a walnut I cut that was leaning toward the house.  I decided to have a portable sawmill come in.  With set-up, he cut five logs up for me in 4 hours and charged me $250 (he had a helper).  I thought that was cheap.  However, I did not have the spacer boards made yet, and left the maple stacked in a neat pile (in the August sun).  A week later, when stacked the pile with spacers, I found I had a lot of mold growing on the maple.  Walnut was pretty much ok.  I threw a lot of bleach on it then properly stacked it in a barn.  So have your spacers ready before hand!

So YES! check out the portable sawmill way, and have your spacer boards ready to go.   It is fun and made sawing look so easy, after using my chainsaw method.  You can get some nice live edge wood this way and have it cut in 4/4, 6/4, 8/4 whatever you want.  Borrow a Cant and see if you can roll those logs like the pioneers did. You need a nice flat area because saw pretty much has to be set level and is rather long.  If the Ash is dead, watch the top as they tend to snap off-so if you rope it have a 2nd rope tied lower.    Have fun and don't kill yourself!
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: MaineShop on April 08, 2021, 03:51 PM
I my area lumber yards are only holding quotes for 24 hours.
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: JD2720 on April 08, 2021, 04:51 PM
I am glad I retired at the end of last year. [big grin]
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: woodferret on April 14, 2021, 06:18 PM
A couple of weks ago I bought 4x8x18mm GIS plywood, it was C$87 per sheet  [crying]  Thankfully I only needed three sheets.

It was the only suitable material available at my local HD, and it was stamped "Made in Chile" which may have explained some of the $87.

Nothing wrong with Chile but this is Canada, I would have thought if nothing else we could produce our own plywood.  Apparently not.

I know that product.  Before-times price was roughly $60cdn so not too big of a jump considering ACX pine.  We don't have Pinus radiata here.  We produce spruce (CSP) ply, and fir ply.  Our pine is used as inner ply to CSP and other in finished boards and siding.  Columbia does produce veneers of clear white pine and a VC ply but that's typically special order since its not an economical product for that species.
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: fraz on May 05, 2021, 03:15 AM
This was a week ago at HD.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210505/b2a5e449659dd7511adbe72259a129d1.jpg)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: Bob D. on May 05, 2021, 06:21 AM
This was a week ago at HD.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210505/b2a5e449659dd7511adbe72259a129d1.jpg)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Same price here (Southern NJ), $72.18
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: Thompmd on May 05, 2021, 07:33 AM
I found it really strange in a good way that I’m building some cabinets and 1/2 & 3/4 birch, Maple, Red Oak & Poplar are $55 & $56(after 11% discount) for Plywood and standard construction is $65?. Bought it yesterday .
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: squall_line on May 05, 2021, 07:42 AM
I want to send this to my insurance adjuster as a way of reminding him that every week he pushes back against the contractors on their scope of work, the scope of work he's willing to cover increases as much or more than the extra 10-15 square feet of work that the contractors bid over the estimate.

Also, I need to look at timber prices again; I'm hoping my pergola project won't need to wait until another season when prices aren't completely insane.
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: afish on May 05, 2021, 08:47 AM
This happened not that long ago.  First Real estate shot up to record levels. Then building materials went crazy (I remember 7/16 OSB getting to around $25 a sheet) then a couple years later it went to complete S#!*.  I was building my house then but luckily I was 6 months or so ahead of the curve.  Not so lucky this time as we were planning a second home in the keys but these price increases have hit the breaks on that.  I know the situation is different now but I dont see these prices being sustainable long term.  Eventually, these higher prices will start affecting spending.  I feel like we are one straw away from breaking the proverbial camels back.  Gas prices, food prices, interest rates.  We are also coming up on hurricane season if its a bad year plywood is going to go nuts.  Crossing fingers for quiet year.   
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: Holzhacker on May 05, 2021, 09:28 AM
Wow you guys in NJ are worse off than us. $72 for a sheet of plywood. That makes a new subfloor in an addition pretty pricey.
As an update a 2x4x8 was up to $7.25 on Sunday at HD, up from $6.55 I originally posted not that long ago.
I agree this has to burn out. These prices can't continue.
The housing market around here is brutal. 2, 5, 13 back up offers on almost every deal. Buyers are paying top dollar and beyond. When the income stops coming in, the foreclosures will start all over.
On the bright side, the commercial market should come back over the next year so that might provide some stability.
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: squall_line on May 05, 2021, 10:23 AM
The housing market around here is brutal. 2, 5, 13 back up offers on almost every deal. Buyers are paying top dollar and beyond. When the income stops coming in, the foreclosures will start all over.

Some friends of ours have a second baby on the way and are looking for a new house.  Everyone's releasing contingencies in their offers, including inspections and appraisals; if the appraisal comes back low, they're on the hook for the overage in cash, not the bank.

I'm happy we bought our "forever" home about 18 months ago, and about 5% under market price at the time.
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: afish on May 05, 2021, 10:36 AM
Same exact type of stuff happened in 2005. Im just sitting back and  [popcorn]
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: Yardbird on May 05, 2021, 11:39 AM
Even at these high prices does not mean it is in stock.  My water heater sprung a leak and I ordered one in March.  It just came in May 3rd at a big box store.  I have some car brake parts ordered longer than that and still not in.   I would hate to be building a house expecting everything would be available when I need it.  Pray a computer chip does not go out of your car-you might be waiting six months.  A local manufacturer is parking semi trucks (Kenworths) waiting for parts.  I hear they have rented the fairground and plan to park 2000 trucks there.  Don't worry about price-worry about availability!
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: Peter_C on May 05, 2021, 07:33 PM
This happened not that long ago.  First Real estate shot up to record levels. Then building materials went crazy (I remember 7/16 OSB getting to around $25 a sheet) then a couple years later it went to complete S#!*.  I was building my house then but luckily I was 6 months or so ahead of the curve.  Not so lucky this time as we were planning a second home in the keys but these price increases have hit the breaks on that.  I know the situation is different now but I dont see these prices being sustainable long term.  Eventually, these higher prices will start affecting spending.  I feel like we are one straw away from breaking the proverbial camels back.  Gas prices, food prices, interest rates.  We are also coming up on hurricane season if its a bad year plywood is going to go nuts.  Crossing fingers for quiet year.   
In Florida I would build ICF. You can build a bunker house! No bug issues, super insulated, hurricane proof, with quality storm shutters, and it would be more secure as a secondary home. Very little wood would be needed, but the question is what is the cost of concrete? It's high, but how high in Florida?
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: afish on May 05, 2021, 07:48 PM
I used to build with icf's back in michigan. Total icf fan here. there is still alot of wood involved in forming. down there everything is elevated
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: Christopher Fitch on May 08, 2021, 10:35 PM
I just bought two sheets of plywood tonight from HD for my MFT cart build that I'm about to start.

I went in yesterday evening to price sheets and they had Birch 3/4" 4x8 sheets at about $70 a sheet. They had about 20 sheets. I went there tonight and all the Birch was gone. Next to Birch spot was a stack of Maple 3/4" sheets. I didn't see a price but I decided I might as well get some even though I expected it to be more pricey than the Birch.  Pay the higher price and get some wood vs waiting. I was wrong - the Maple ply clocked in a $60 a sheet which is about $4 more than what I used to see it at before the prices exploded.

CDX 3/4" full sheets were $86 a sheet.

It's a very very odd market.

So now I'm making my cart out of Maple ply - never expected that.

Fancy!
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: fraz on May 10, 2021, 12:20 PM
Hah, happy accidents.  It seems that the construction grade stuff is what is going nuts.  Yeah the Russian birch here went up a bit but there were already supply problems before all this as well plus a Russian embargo (or something like that) hurting the supply. Still, percentage-wise, the good stuff seems reasonably priced ($100) compared to the junk construction wood.

Oh and I went to another lumber yard the other day and asked for 3/4 CDX sheet price... $92! 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Holy junk Batman
Post by: Mortiser on May 10, 2021, 05:49 PM
I was able to get Maple plywood at Lowes last week. 3/4" was $58 for 4x8 and 1/2" was $54 (go figure). I had to go to four stores to find any on the shelf. It's made in Indonesia. They advertised as "virtually void free" but there are voids. All in all the face veneer was pretty nice on both sides. I had tried to buy some 3/4" and 1/2" Baltic Birch from Wurth (fairly large regional supplier in the southeast) but they said they were out of stock on both until July!
----
Rich